"As coaches, we all root for senior center Joseph Katuka to succeed and be a dominant force in the paint. He is a wonderful person, and truly the heart and soul of our basketball team."

-Read: If we have an inside game, we'll surprise people (maybe including ourselves). If not, well, you've seen what happens.

To paraphrase, the interviewer says to Greg that GW was playing quality basketball in the OOC, compiling a 10-3 record, and then only won 6 games in-conference, asking if the conference record was disappointing?  Am I one of only a handful of people who completely understand what a sham this is?

Were we playing quality basketball when we squeaked by with wins at UNCW, ECU, Towson and Holy Cross?   Wouldn't anyone have to agree that we played far better in a loss to Providence than in any of those wins? 

Critics will point out that our young team learned how to win on the road.  Of course, once A10 play began, the only road wins came at St. Bonaventure and Fordham.

Our schedule, like last years, allows us to beat teams we're supposed to beat, thereby creating a false sense of how good the team really is.  The schedule does not allow GW to test themselves nearly enough (not that there are no tests...Harvard at home, as well as games at Mason, UAB and Oregon State all qualify as would a potential game against Villanova obviously), and clearly fails the team to adequately prepare for A10 play. 

Nobody, including the coaches, believes that Katuka will be averaging a double double.

Katuka did average 8.75 pts, 6.75 reb, .5 bls and 3.25 fouls while shooting around 50% in 21.88 min over the last 8 games of the season.  9 and 7/game would be nice from Joseph and give GW a legitimate half-court option down low.  But Katuka's been consistently unconsistent at GW so we sould epect some no shows throughout the season.

Call me crazy, but I could certainly see Joe averaging a double-double.  While inconsistency has certainly plagued him, he showed some consistency towards the end of the year.   In the last 4 league games, he was 10-14, 10-5, 15-4, and 13-10.  The biggest two problems facing Joe have been getting minutes with Hobbs erratic PT, and staying out of foul trouble.  Losing Hollis and Herman will certainly give Joe more time if he can stay on the floor in terms of fouls.  Add in the fact that our perimeter offense should just get better and the A-10 not always having the most competent big men and Joe should be able to get plenty of easy baskets on put backs or drives from the guards.  We're losing 9 boards between Holis and Hermann. 

Joe only averaged 15 min/game, if you put him at 25/game which should be the minimum for your top center especially with such little depth and with last year stats of 6 and 4, that would translate into 10 and 6.66 rebounds/game.  That along with the other variables which can only increase his output and he could easily be a top center in the league if his offseason is productive.

Prior to Dokun's big jump as a senior, our own Antoine Hart had a significant increase in production his senior year.  The difference between Dokun/Antoine and Katuka is that the prior two lacked playing time until their senior years and Joseph has been a part of the center rotation the last 2 years.  Dokun's per minute stats are very similar from Junior to Senior years but it was his playing time that changed dramatically:
 

Katuka averaged about 22 minutes/game the last 8 games of the season last year and went for 9pts and 6.5 reb.  Maybe both go up a notch but don't epect a huge jump in production.  He's likely to have strings of games with 15ps, 10pts, 3 pts.  Some nights he'll be on fire others he'll be off and completely ineffective.  Unless Katuka significantly improves his consistentsy on DEFENSE it's likely that Hobbs will not like some matchups and park JK on the bench.

I don't know why the coaching staff is unconcerned with replacing Hollis but the should be.  Leading scorer, rebounder, block shots, FTs made, FGs made.  More importantly GW has a major hole at the PF spot.  Who they got right now at PF?

David Pellom.  I like him but he averaged only 3pts and 3reb/game last year.  Hopefully he makes the Great Sophmore Leap Forward.  But other than that, who does GW have?

Edwards - shooting range of 3 ft.

Warren - Unkown that Hobbs says adds depth to the 5 spot.  Can he play the perimeter defensively or shoot the mid-range jumper?

Fitzgerald - ? but not too optimistic

Smith - probably the best option because he's strong, athletic and can rebound.  But still giving up some height at 6-6.

Hollis did more than score as he also led the team in rebounds and blocks.  But where his absence really hurts is in his ablility to create his own shot when "The Wheel" half court offensive system breaks down.  Not enough options right now. 

I really hate The Wheel.  Can you think of another offensive/defensive system that has proven itself totally ineffective but a coach continues to stick with it? Maybe Al Davis' "verticle" passing sytem that every other NFL team has moved away from 10 or more years ago.

Back to GW, FQ, who other than Pellom can play PF for the Colonials and what happens if Pellom doesn't develop?     

As far as Joe's defense, the biggest problem with him or any of the other big men seems to be lack of understanding  the game and the game plan.  As tall and as long as he is, I feel like Hobbs tries to do way too much on defense and should just let Joe anchor the defense and let everyone else play straight up.  This would stop the team from cheating on defense b/c it seems like they think they are in high school and can just steal the ball whenever they want.  Instead, just stay home and don't allow any 3 pointers or wide open lay ups. 

As far as the 4, Pellom will be the guy, but after that they have some options depending upon who develops and what the game calls for.  They can go with Smith if they want to go smaller or can try Warren out there if he proves to be any big of consistent but I suspect one of the two freshman will get their shot probably being Mikic.

Remember Hollis played a significant stretch last year with badly bruised ribs.  This probably eplains Damian's reduction in rebounding (from 6.1/game the previous 2 seasons ot 4.9 last year) and reluctance to mi it up down low.

Still Hollis averaged about 14pts and 5 rebs/game last year in 23 minutes.  Pellom and Smith combined for 8pts and 6reb/game with less blocks in 28 combined minutes.  They're going to have to increase their production and consistensy or GW will have a large hole to fill at the forward spot.

I think this year will be won and lost on the 3 point line.  If Hobbs shows an ability to defend the 3 then our defense should be eponentially better.  We are as athletic as any other team so just play defense straight up.  Get rid of the half court trap and stop trying to force turnovers like we are playing high school teams with so many well disciplined teams.  Make them shoot over us or run an effective set. 

As far as offense, the more respect we get from 3, the more room we will have to work with.  I suspect Lasan will get no room to shoot so if he develops a mid range and driving abilities than he should be the 'guy'.  Than they have TT who was treated like a Rondo type guard and thrived with open shots.  Bynes  has also shown an ability to go off at times.  TJ isn't a consistent shooter but if he gets to the rim can be very eciting.  Than you have Ware and Smith who can hit their fair share of 3's.  If 1 or 2 of those 3 have developed some consistent outside shooting than the perimeter offense should just get so much better with their abilities to get to the rim.  But the biggest growth could be had at the 4.  Replacing Hollis won't be easy but if Pellom has developed an outside shot, he could be lethal.  He was often given plenty of space to shoot and if they close out on him, I think he could be more athletic than Hollis and with the complementary players, the offense could actually resemble a real D-1 offense.  The team will need a 3 point threat other than Kromah so Mikic could see time if Pellom can't shoot.  But overall, this team has no reason to not be a good offense in the half court set.

I think it's worth scrapping the scrambling defense and see what happens.  The game of forcing turnovers worked when we had several players on the team who could force them and convert -- Hall, Pinnock, Elliott, Rice could do both, and Regis and Montrell for his brief stay were really good at forcing turnovers.  But that's almost an entire lineup that could do it.  I don't see that as the strength of too many of the guys we have now, and getting into a three-point shooting contest with a lot of teams doesn't make me feel confident with the lineup we have, unless the freshmen turn out to be really strong, but that isn't likely to happen for a year or two anyway. 

On the Warren-Katuka issue, unless Warren can handle the ball, I don't see him and Katuka being in the lineup together ecept for injuries/foul trouble/a rare game where Hobbs thinks we need to go really big.  Hobbs likes to have as many ballhandlers on the court as possible, which has worked well when we've had the guys who can do it.  Also, unless Warren can shoot from some range, it gives the other team an advantage in defending our perimeter players if we've got two guys on the court without much range, plus Ware hasn't shown much range, although he did show some potential last season.  

FQ's right about Hobbs...Karl won't be scraping the half-court pressure defense anytime soon.  Building an offensive or defensive system around Chis Fitzgerald seems unwise and why would Hobbs suffer all season last trying to teach the Freshmen 5 how to play his trapping D just to abandon it the following year when they should all be able to play it more effectively? 

The Sophmore 5 Ware & Edwards really are the long, athletic types to run Hobbs' defensive system.  Now if you want to talk about gettng rid of "The Wheel", I'm all for it since that offensive system has never been effective for GW.  They won in years past despite "The Wheel" not because of it.

MV, I do remember in their comeback victory vs GW, avier grabbing something like 15 straight rebounds (offensive and defensive) to take the lead and put GW away.  A couple of nights latter, Dayton also dominated GW on the boards.  Hollis was a good rebounder when healthy and Opoku was clearly the best board man of the 3HM.  So Pellom and Smith have to both concentrate on hitting the boards all game net season.

Maybe it is just a feeling but watching Pellom last year, he seemed more of a perimeter play which works for the current system of 4 guys on the perimeter.  In addition, he was left open behind the arc numerous times and you could see that he wanted to shoot as his pump fakes almost became shots.  There is no evidence to back this up but he seems like the type of kid who would work on his 3 point shot than work down low, and from hearing some updates from the Kenner League, it seems that maybe he will be a threat to shoot from outside.  Not a 40% guy but someone who can knock down the open 3. 

As far as the defense, there is absolutely no reason to play a trapping defense as your main defense.  You say it is to speed up the game to get more possessions, last year GW ranked 81 in tempo according to KenPom.  Behind teams like Charlotte, Duquesne, avier, Umass, St. Joes and Fordham.  So we aren't even getting more possessions because teams are slowing us down.  Which brings me to the net point, these teams are too good to trap against.  Some of these teams will have guards who can beat the trap by themselves or others will be patient and disciplined enough to find the open guy.  The trap is dying and we may be one of the last D-1 schools to use it.  It is fine to change defenses up and give them different looks from time to time but can't do it all game.  This led to an astounding amount of 3 pointers where the guy could have stood there for 5 seconds before shooting.  And as far as steals, GW only finished 4th in the A-10 in steals/game.  And we were a good 2 steals behind teams like Clemson or Mizzou who we should emulate if we want to speed the game up. 

If they play straight up man to man defense, their pure athleticism and anticipation should get them as many steals while also wearing the other team down.  Maybe pressure them full court like Clemson or Mizzou and trap immediately but don't do the half court trap and let them see it coming.  This would then allow Hobbs to go 10 deep since the team would actually be tired.  And maybe this Guest kid is the physical type who can play defense 94 feet and pester the other team.  But there is no reason to suggest that we need to trap teams to get our offense going.  We can still leak out on missed shots and as D'antoni has shown, you can even start a fast break after a made basket.  Maybe KH was afraid of doing too much with all young players but with more eperience, TT, Ware, Smith, and Kromah should all be able to attack the basket in the half court and maybe Joe finds a go to post move.  And if they can't then there is nothing we can do b/c teams like St. Louis will just slow the game down, hit their wide open 3's, make us take contested jump shots at the end of the shot clock, then wait for us to try to trap and get even easier baskets. 

Ultimately, Pellom just needs to work on his all around game and he will be a key in determining how well this team plays.  Last year he seemed nervous to get too involved in the offense so I do suspect we haven't seen his full arsenal.  He needs to develop a shot wheter it is from 3 point distance or from the elbow, he needs to draw out the other forward to give the 5 and guards to work with.  In addition, if he gets defenders to close out on him, he can use his athleticism to get to the rim.  He could be a good match up for us and replace some of what Hollis left along with providing more energy.

Lasan looks to be our only consistent scorer from the wing in the sense that he can shoot and drive.  After him, we have a bunch of slashers who aren't consistent shooters.  Team was 227 in the NCAA from 3.  They will need Ware, Smith, Bynes, TJ, or Pellom to become consistent scorers and one way will be to make teams respect the jump shot.  Of course this is oversimplified b/c it does not take into account the terrible shots taken at the end of a 35 second shot clock when the team doesn't get the ball inside the arc.  But again, our half court offense can only go up from here, Kromah and the rest of the freshman can only get better, Joe can only get better.  While Hollis looks like a huge loss from outsiders, it is still a loss for the team but not nearly to the etent that losing your leading scorer normally is.  The only player I think might not take a step forward might be TT who will be the focal point of other teams defense and might not get as many open looks if they try to make the rest of the team beat them.  But I can't see this team taking a step backwards and if they do, it really is time for Hobbs to go as GWU needs to start cashing in on the DC talent.

Omar:

Pellom:

Omar led in pts, reb, ast and blocks.  Pellom was shut out completely in points in 8 of his last 12 games last year. 

Hollis will be missed more than some contend.

Naturally, Omar would have better numbers b/c he averages 10 minutes more a game.  Omar had more than twice as many shot attempts.  Pellom was at .535 compared to Omar at .435 and Pellom also had 50 less free throws so if Pellom learns to use his athleticism to get to the rim, he will get to the line more often which will just increase his PPS.  If you project Pellom at 25 minutes/game at the same rate, he'd have 5.5 rebounds/game.  Assist to TO ratio is practically identical. 

As far as Hollis, he only shot at a 42% rate and had a 1 to 2 A to TO ratio.  His was the leading rebounder but not by a huge margin and if you projected everyone to rebounds/40 minutes, Pellom, Hermann, and Joe all have better rebounding numbers.  I'm not saying they won't miss him and he was probably the best pure scorer the team had but b/c of his injury/discontent, the team didn't rely on him as much as I thought and still were very successful.  They probably won't be able to rely on Lasan to create his own shot like Hollis did but the offense as a whole needs to and should get better with eperience and Lasan should be able to get up to 15/game.  It will require a few of the other younger players to step up and the team needs to get some continuity early, but I see no reason why this team doesn't take a step forward.

Omar's curse was being, I believe, the 69th rated player coming out of high school during his freshman year.  Mike, Pops and Carl never cracked the top 100 of such a list, JR may have, and Ricky Lucas did.  In any case, Omar showed up with greater epectations than any of his teammates.  He was a solid, serviceable player. 

Top 68, I can only hope that opponents will make TT the focal point of their defenses and "let other players beat them."  I don't suspect that will be the case as I give college coaches a bit more credit in the intelligence category than that.  In a certain respect, we are back to the "share-the-ball, no one guy being shut down will cause you to be beat" type of team that we were a few years ago.  The bad news is that today's talent appears to pale in comparison, at least for the time being. 

MV

You are correct, I meant it more to say that TT got the Rondo treatment last year.  I doubt these teams will give him such wide open 3's and even contest his mid range jumpers more.  I just don't see TT taking another huge step forward, he did surprise me last year but can't see him adding too much more to his game apart from maybe getting better at finishing at the rim.  Gameplans against us will probably involve stopping Lasan by making him put it on the floor and TT will have to work for his shots as I doubt people play as much off him.  The rest of the team will be sagged off and probably forced to beat the team by making shots.

 and what are you doing.