Team stats as of today
edward
 1/13/2018 10:43:15 AM      Replies: 10

edward1/11/2018 7:45:38 AM

Statistically, this is the worst team in GW history:

  George Washington Team Stats
  Rank W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck
2018 201 8-9 -3.38 100.5 230 103.9 177 63.7 348 0.113 24
2017 132 20-15 2.32 107.7 114 105.3 189 65.8 286 0.067 30
2016 53 28-10 13.86 114.8 29 101 103 66.2 265 0.031 94
2015 69 22-13 10.19 108.4 90 98.2 65 61.9 299 0.009 164
2014 47 24-9 13.82 110.8 74 97 47 65.3 144 0.056 61
2013 111 13-17 5.34 100.4 211 95.1 49 66.5 81 -0.085 330
2012 171 10-21 -0.68 101.8 190 102.5 161 62.6 280 -0.038 261
2011 175 17-14 -0.73 101.3 210 102 134 63.6 259 0.073 25
2010 122 16-15 5.15 103.4 162 98.3 89 67 115 -0.044 284
2009 187 10-18 -2.17 102.2 183 104.4 205 63 265 -0.066 314
2008 171 9-17 -1.1 100.9 207 102 138 63.4 246 -0.057 299
2007 95 23-9 7.28 105 153 97.7 58 66.9 117 0.089 20
2006 43 27-3 14.67 110.3 52 95.6 48 71.2 12 0.106 7
2005 38 22-8 14.41 109.9 56 95.5 40 70.8 25 -0.013 197
2004 50 18-12 13.08 112.6 35 99.5 94 68.3 69 -0.032 239
2003 110 12-17 5.18 107.2 83 102.1 163 68.6 96 -0.078 302
2002 200 12-16 -3.19 102.7 169 105.9 225 70.7 67 0.089 10

  Off Rating Def Rating Pace Consistency nERD
2017-18 0.213 0.313 0.031 0.235 -2.62
2016-17 0.57 0.463 0.154 0.079 1.91
2015-16 0.893 0.705 0.226 0.39 9.47
2014-15 0.635 0.814 0.256 0.933 6.76
2013-14 0.698 0.866 0.635 0.634 9.28
2012-13 0.248 0.762 0.755 0.71 3.32
2011-12 0.321 0.267 0.085 0.945 -0.26
2010-11 0.479 0.534 0.172 0.745 -0.05
2009-10 0.581 0.712 0.43 0.4 3.49
2008-09 0.521 0.266 0.209 0.887 -1.27
2007-08 0.229 0.337 0.317 0.722 -0.75
2006-07 0.551 0.856 0.495 0.569 5.18
2005-06 0.85 0.963 0.993 0.583 9.72
2004-05 0.84 0.923 0.961 0.382 10.07
2003-04 0.692 0.739 0.913 0.292 8.37
2002-03 0.486 0.469 0.801 0.147 3.21
2001-02 0.292 0.265 0.951 0.931 -1.88
2000-01 0.489 0.427 0.918 0.935 6.46
1999-00 0.497 0.518 1 0.468 4.27

1

free quebec1/11/2018 9:43:27 AM

Sorry, no.    In 1988-89, we finished 1-27.  There was no KenPom back the, but in the Sagarin Index (the only available rankings of all teams) we finished 2nd to last of all D1 teams (I think 295 out of 296).

 

As for KenPom ratings, leaving aside all the negative stats because we all know this a bad year, one thing I find interesting is the player "similarity scores."    That is, he compares all players in his database to each other and tries to find the most similar players over the last 10-15 years (using everything from size to all the stats).

For Terry Nolan, his 3rd closest comp is actually Richmond's De'Monte Buckingham's freshman year.   If you recall, Buckingham was A-10 rookie of the year (though after being a great freshman role player, he has taken a step back this year as a soph after being asked to carry the team).

For Yuta, his closest comp, with a very high 939 (out of 1000) similarity score is Rasual Butler's 2002 senior yeare.   If you remember, Butler was an excellent player on a terrible LaSalle team, but went on to have a nice 14 year NBA career.  Butler was a better offensive player than Yuta, but Yuta the better defender.

Bodlen and Steeve's comps are people you've never heard of (though Bolden's #5 is Malik Story, who became an excellent player at Nevada and makes money playing overseas). 

Toro's comps are people you may know. His #1 is Kevin Puryear from Missouri from last season.  His #4 is Gilvydas Biruta, a big stiff from Rhode Island.  His #5 is Dylan Osetkowski's sophmore year at Tulane, who was a good big guy for them before transferring to Texas, where he's playing really well this year.

 

My takeaway from all that is don't write off a still-developoing Arnoldo Toro yet.  If he works hard, he could be really good by his senior year.

3

sparty1/11/2018 2:07:00 PM

We get #1 pick

1

little birdie dropping knowledge1/12/2018 10:22:14 AM

So according to Ken Pom and whatever the other thing is, over 19 seasons, this is the worst overall GW team in recorded history.  That includes:

a) the worst offense on record

b) the worst tempo/pace on record

c) the 4th worst defense on record

d) the 4th luckiest season on record

Last season's team was the 6th worst team on record. That includes:

a) the 3rd worst defense on record

b) the 2nd worst tempo/pace on record

c) the 6th luckiest season on record

free quebec1/12/2018 12:00:00 PM

To be fair, this year is not over.  While no GW team has finished as low in KenPom data as we are rated right now, there have been teams that were rated even lower in mid-season.  For example, in ML's first year, we dropped down to 210 around this time in 2012 before climbing up to end the year at 170.   And in Hobbs' last season, we dropped even worse -down to 221 on January 2nd, 2011.

Unforunately, Pomeroy data only lists season-ending ranking, not in-season ranks, for seasons before that, but the 2002 sesason (Hobbs' first year) finished a pathetic 200th after winning two of its last three, so it may have been even lower than this at some point.

The big question now is whether this time can improve a little so it doesn't finish as our worst year-end ranking in the history of KenPom data. 

1

free quebec1/12/2018 12:01:47 PM

BTW, right now in our 4 conference games (even including the win over St. Joe's), we are dead last in offensive efficiency and dead last in defensive efficiency.

in fact, our offense has been so bad in the 4 conference games (again, including the SJU win) that our Ortg of 89.1 would rank 348th in the nation for the season, ahead of only Mississippi Valley St., Coppin St., Longwood, and Alabama A&M. Ouch.

4

shofaz11/12/2018 12:28:14 PM

is this the worst A-10 team-composite performance in recent memory? Does KenPom track data that way? 

1

gw alum abroad1/12/2018 1:09:57 PM

On the court, 1-27 was waaaaaay worse. Off the court, this year is unblemished. Three poor outings in a row makes no one happy, but does not sink this team "all-time worst" status, either.

2

the real dude1/12/2018 5:23:48 PM

Shofaz, what's the update on Kethan? Is he playing somewhere? Overseas?

1

dave1/12/2018 6:17:11 PM

I thought all of the guys leaving after last season was a potential red flag, but these statistics are frigtening and definitely a red flag.  GW should win tomorrow, but there's a very real chance of a loss against 3-13 Richmond.  That's how far things have fallen.  In the battle of Nero vs. Lonergan, it looks like Lonergan is getting the last laugh.  As this team looks increasingly incompetent, Lonergan's value only goes up.

5

edward1/13/2018 10:43:15 AM

Scroll down to Advanced.  Tyler Cavanaugh was single-handedly responsible for 5 wins last season.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/george-washington/2017.html

 

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