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A-10 Round-Up 5 weeks into the season
Created: 12/18/2014 5:49:13 PMReplies: 18
12/18/2014 5:49:13 PM - gdubber - 21 posts (#221)

9 words:  

The Atlantic Ten Conference is a 1 bid league.

 

1- VCU- beat UNI @ home which is the A-10's best win this season thus far.  think the A-10 has 1 win over a ranked opponent and this has been it. Lost by 20 at home to UVA and also beat a good Belmont team at home. The A-10's only hope to get to the NCAA as they are far & away the conference's most complete team which is not saying a hell of a lot since this VCU team aint all that impressive.

2. URI-  Rams beat Southern Miss but lost to Providence.  No real resume except a win over Nebraska who lost to Incarnate Word. Still think the Rams will challenge VCU or come in 2nd or 3rd.

3. GW- Best win is sadly Depaul (who just lost to Illinois State)  or Charlotte which is not good. Chances for solid wins in Hawaii upcoming (COLO, Wichita, but must beat Ohio 1st)  but no resume wins.  Needs to run the table or close to it during Jan/Feb/March to have any shot of being on the bubble. A loss by 13 to Penn State which is a bottom Big 10 team & Seton Hall, a mediocre Big East team at best will drastically hurt any real chances. Maybe the Aloha State visit changes the season around. Mele kalikimaka. The PSU game was a complete dud that will haunt Lonergan until PSU comes to Smith in 360 days. 

4 UMass- Lost at home to Florida Gulf Coast, blown out @ LSU by 25  & still has to go to BYU. Resume is less than impressive.

5-Davidson- Suprise of the conference but yet to be tested. Scoring 110 vs Montana will not happen during the A-10. Do have great outside shooting. This team will suprise people in the next 3 months. Will not finish 12th as predicted.

6-Dayton- 2 star centers robbed 25 dorm rooms this weekend. Not very smart.  No player over 6'6 means a lot of zone for Archie. Blown out by Arkansas and barely beat Bowling Green. No great wins.

7-St Louis- Blown out by Wichita & lost to South Dakota St. Barely beat SIU-Edwardsville.  Beat Pan-American.  Rebuilding year for SLU but will win some A-10 games.

8-Richmond- Lost to James Madison, beat Howard & WIlliam & Mary. Could suprise in the next 3 months but doubtful

9-St Bona-  Lost to Pitt. Beat Ohio. Soft Non-Con for Schmidt. Will win those winter games in Olean.

10-LaSalle- Lost to American. Blown out by Nova. Not very good. Beat Drexel. lost to Temple

11- St Joe- Blown out by Nova. Beat Loyola.  GW plays on Hawk Hill to open A-10 play. Lose that...call off the dogs.

12- Mason- Copes done. Lost @ UNI. Beat D2 Catawba.   Hewitt seat warming up.

13- Duq- Yikes. Blown out by Robert Morris. Blown out by St Francis Pa. Jim Ferry's team stinks. only lost by 2 at PSU.

14- Ford- Severe gone. Beat Monmouth, Siena. Blown out by St John's. No hope in the Bronx.

 

 

12/18/2014 7:14:22 PM - Gene - 1 posts (#241)

Gdubber-

The A10 is not having a great OOC season, that much is true. Although, if you are putting the o/u of Tourney teams at 1, Im sure some of the other people on here will agree that you could get a lot of action on the over. The number probably ends up around 3 maybe 4 if a bubble squad wins in Brooklyn. 

GW Bubble Talk-  Im not claiming that we won't be on the bubble I think right now that's a very likely scenario. However, If somehow GW were to run the table (or close) from January-March I feel confident that we won't be having bubble conversations at the Alumni event before our first game at Barclays.

Hawaii- I understand that it would take some work to set up this match up but if you don't think that beating the Shockers #11 Nationally is a "Resume Win" then I don't know what this team can do to impress you the rest of the year, short of winning out.

12/18/2014 10:03:44 PM - MG'14 - 220 posts (#95)

Wasn't sure where to post this, but Megan Nipe is apparently going to play in Portugal

12/18/2014 10:48:18 PM - Free Quebec - 5,909 posts (#2)

As LSF has pointed out elsewhere, while the A-10 is down this year, you are overstating its demise.  I'd be one of those people Gene pointed to who would easily bet the over on a 1.5 o/u.

It's still just December and teams will emerge during conference play and pick up at least several top 100 wins.  It won't be 6, but it'll be more like the 3 that is our historical norm.

12/18/2014 11:28:03 PM - Orel Miraculous - 226 posts (#93)

In what freaking universe is beating the #11 team in the country not a resume win?

12/18/2014 11:37:30 PM - Orel Miraculous - 226 posts (#93)

Holy shit, I should have kept reading before I stopped to mock you for your idiotic remark about Wichita State.  GW needs to run the table for the next three months to have "any shot at being on the bubble"??? So in the crazy world that you live in, going 28-3 is not only not enough to get a tournament bid, but it might not even be enough to make us a bubble team??

You really need to...just not post.  I was trying to think of another remedy to prescribe, but not posting is really the only thing that will work for the particularly nasty strain of stupidy that you are coughing up in this thread.  

12/19/2014 6:52:57 AM - pops - 403 posts (#57)

maybe we should make this a thread about megan snipe.

GW has lost 3 games.  The teams they have lost to, all on the road, are a combined 29-2.  At this point we have done nothing to damage our post season chances.  But more important than who we have or have not beat, this team has an identity problem.  They just aren't playing as well as we'd hoped.  The offense actually works better when the freshman are in the game.  I have no doubt that we will improve as the season progresses.  Even if we don't, we will still beat up on those teams who don't stop our penetration and can't dominate the boards. 

A sweep in Hawaii would be spectacular and put us ahead of even the most optimistic of our preseason forecasts.  I just don't think we are playing well enough as a team right now to pull that off.  So i will be more the content with two out of three, even if we don't wind up facing Wichita St.  For one thing, no one has stepped forward as that go-to guy in crunch time.  at this point it is as likely to become Yuta as anybody.

As for the A-10 overall, the Dayton thing really hurts.  As a practical matter it reduces the number of tournament teams by exactly one.  Daytron was slated for a ticket and they would really have to have messed that up not to get one.  I could see this year being a one team invite if VCU were to win our tourney and neither we or the other contenders, Davidson, URI, UMASS  are able to separate from the lesser teams.  If someone other than VCU wins our tourney, then we are almost guaranteed 2 teams. 

There is still plenty of time for a couple of teams in addition to vcu to differentiate themselves, so the most likely outcome may be invitations to 3 teams.  Simply for shits and grins i would place likely outcomes in the following order from most likely to least:

  1.  3 teams      35%
  2.  2 teams      33%
  3.  1 team        27%
  4. 4 teams         5%

The possibility of more than 4 teams would be less than 1%.

 

12/19/2014 10:19:33 AM - The MV - 4,541 posts (#4)

There are more holes in this thread than Wilt Chamberlain was able to find in a given month.  I'll just leave it by seconding everything Orel Miraculous said.

 

12/19/2014 10:53:13 AM - gw alum - 115 posts (#138)

Again teams we have lost to are 27-2, through Wednesday...It would be great if that ratio holds for conference play.

12/19/2014 12:18:25 PM - Coshmine - 1 posts (#241)

Dude, GW is playing ok but VCU is awesome.  

12/19/2014 12:18:46 PM - newtman - 1,272 posts (#25)

agree with Gene and FQ. i'm taking the over on a 1.5 teams making the NCAA. we need to run the table to finish with only 3 losses to be a bubble team? 28-3 overall and undefeated in conference play gets a bid.

12/19/2014 1:30:47 PM - pops - 403 posts (#57)

i suspect that 9-4 OOC  and 13-5 in conference and a win in the A10 puts us in 2nd or 3rd place in the A10 and gets us a bid.

12/19/2014 1:54:39 PM - Free Quebec - 5,909 posts (#2)

All these "9-4 OOC" predictions assume we win 2 in Hawaii.  That probably means beating either Colorado or Nebraska, both of whom would be solid neutral court wins.  Won't be easy, but if we can win at least 2 in Hawaii, I suspect everyone will feel much better.

On the flip side, I hope the team plays loose and aggressvive, worry that these guys will put too much pressure on themselves - which leads to missed shots, missed FTs, and lapses in concentration.

 

 

12/19/2014 4:19:48 PM - bobo - 3,016 posts (#8)

I think that the A10 has gone Juan Bid only once in the last 20 years.  So I'm doubtful 2015 will be a repeat. 

6 RPI Top 55 schools right now and 7 in the top 87.  8 Pomeroy Top 100 as well.  So GW and everyone else will have lots of opportunities to earn RPI Top 100 wins.  Most of GW's "good" wins will come in conference.

I would say the A10 will have 3 teams in the tournament this season.  Most likely.  Using Pops' chart:

1 Bid - 10%

2 Bids - 25%

3 Bids - 40%

4 Bids - 25%

4 bids could clearly happen either by 4 teams playing their way in the regular season or, more likely, 3 A10 teams earning their way in and 1 team (not in the top 3) winning the A10 Tournament and getting the automatic bid.

For GW, winning 2 games in Hawaii is very important.  Do that and 13 wins in the A10 and I think they're dancing.

 

12/19/2014 4:21:08 PM - gwsb14 - 47 posts (#195)

Count me as one who says this is a 2 bid league

12/19/2014 4:58:34 PM - BM - 5,186 posts (#3)

With tip of hat to twisted3829, looks like we're in 3-bid league range right now.

.708 - 2014 Atlantic 10 - 6 bids
.654 - 2013 Atlantic 10 - 5 bids
.643 - 2008 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.624 - 2012 Atlantic 10 - 4 bids
.624 - 2010 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.593 - 2009 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.587 - 2004 Atlantic 10 - 4 bids
.587 - 2011 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.582 - 2015 Atlantic 10 - ? bids
.559 - 2000 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.556 - 2001 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.555 - 2006 Atlantic 10 - 2 bids
.541 - 2007 Atlantic 10 - 2 bids
.536 - 2003 Atlantic 10 - 3 bids
.522 - 2002 Atlantic 10 - 1 bid
.406 - 2005 Atlantic 10 - 1 bid

12/19/2014 8:07:24 PM - Me - 32 posts (#210)

BM +1

Can we please get off of this subject and enjoy the rest of the season one day at a time. Anything can happen so lets just R-E-L-A-X.

12/19/2014 8:27:14 PM - herve - 8,786 posts (#1)

While I cheer for the league, I am very selfish. If it's a one-bid league and one of those teams is GW, GREAT!

12/19/2014 10:58:48 PM - Thomas - 971 posts (#31)

There are some big A-10 OOC games tomorrow with UMass at Providence, VCU at Cincinnati and Detroit at Rhode Island. I'm sure there will be several more chances this month for the A-10 to pick up some big OOC. Also, I think we should see Dayton play a few games without those 2 guys before writing them off. They still have very good players.

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