Bracketology - 1/29
Created: 1/29/2015 11:13:26 AMReplies: 15
1/29/2015 11:13:26 AM - CH - 117 posts (#143)
Again, these are premature and subjective, but an indicator of where we stand.
Lunardi has us in a play-in game as a #12 seed seed.
CBS has us in as a #10 seed.
Let's beat URI and Dayton and create some space. I still think this team has some fight left in it.
1/29/2015 11:34:13 AM - GW26 - 242 posts (#94)
Still ample opportunity to move up the board with wins - VCU was a wake-up call
1/29/2015 11:47:49 AM - ATL Colonial - 36 posts (#213)
VCU certainly a wake up call, but VCU is far and away the best team in the A-10. With an RPI of 8 (and RPI Forecasting them to finish with an RPI of 8), VCU has an excellent chance for a 2 or 3 seed.
1/29/2015 11:49:40 AM - BM - 5,384 posts (#3)
Smackdown at VCU or not, this post from lat week still holds just as true:
Both KenPom and RPIForcast are expecting us to go 22-9, but we need 23-8 to move the RPI below #40 and feel a bit more secure for Selection Sunday. To do that, we need the win the five games we "should" win (DUQ, @DUQ, SBU, @GMU, UMASS). ML teams (like Jarvis) are good at that part. That puts us at 20-4, so we'd need three more wins out of the seven tough games remaining on the schedule. Three of the seven are at home, so we can get there by winning all the games at the Smith Center or by stealing one away (we always seem to do well at Richmond and URI still doesn't scare me) to make up for a home slip vs VCU or Davidson.
It's doable, but there not much margin for error left. Also worth it to note that we could end up outside of the top four in the A-10 tournament (especially if we lose at URI) and could have an opportunity to win an extra game in Brooklyn. I haven't done the calulation, but it actually may help our RPI if we go 2-1 in the tournament versus 1-1. Of course going 3-0 is the best outcome.
1/29/2015 1:29:43 PM - gwsb14 - 64 posts (#186)
Actually like that matchup a lot. Think we could probably take A&M, and give Providence a good run.
1/29/2015 6:41:16 PM - Mots - 75 posts (#176)
I think if we were the five seed in Brooklyn, that is bad for us no matter what. The 12 seed this year would be sub-150 RPI. A win would have no effect or a slight drag, and a loss would be disasterous, not to mention the tired legs from the extra game for a team with a 7-man rotation.
1/30/2015 8:36:21 AM - Goo Colonials Go - 33 posts (#216)
CBS bracket is fun. They have us playing Providence (beatable) which would set up a likely matchup against a 2-seed Duke in Charlotte, NC. For anyone who lived through 2006, this should make you want to throw a chair.
1/30/2015 11:26:12 AM - Tournament analysis
If we play Providence, we will get destroyed. I just don't see how we're going to win a game in the tournament, assuming we're lucky enough to even make it.
1/30/2015 12:22:25 PM - Andrew EC - 169 posts (#118)
"Tournament Analysis," that's just silly. We laid an egg at VCU. Most people here weren't all that surprised by it; this is a team that matches up terribly with VCU, and even good teams with good matchups lose on the road to top-15 opponents. GW faced essentially the perfect storm of awfulness in that game: lots and lots of high-percentage shots (and even back-to-back tip-ins!) rattled out of the basket, putting us down early and forcing a shallow, low-offense team to try and go up-tempo and take more 3s in the second half to get back into it. Unsurprisingly, that didn't work. It's like going for the onside kick with 2 minutes left in the NFL when you're down by two touchdowns; that usually doesn't work, either, but what else are you going to do?
So okay, that sucked and all, but this is still a tournament-caliber team with upside. In the last 4 games, ML has coached Paul Jorgensen up to become a useful 7th man off the bench. Could he do the same over the next dozen games for Darian Bryant or Nick Griffin or even Matt Cimino? I don't know, but it strikes me as plausible, at least.
People have said this all over the board, but it bears repeating again: most good college basketball teams have pretty obvious weaknesses. Even Kentucky has looked pretty mortal on a couple of occasions. Comparatively, GW is still one of those good -- but not great -- teams. I'll take that.
1/30/2015 3:22:36 PM - Goo Colonials Go - 33 posts (#216)
Excellent analysis, Tournament Analysis.
1/31/2015 12:33:43 AM - Bigfan - 2,656 posts (#11)
Truly sad that this is what these guys do for fun.