Time to come in off of the ledge
Created: 12/17/2014 10:26:23 AMReplies: 28
12/17/2014 10:26:23 AM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,670 posts (#6)
I know that I may have helped put some of you on the ledge, but of our next 10 games, we are projected by the folks at RPI to win 9 of them, and most of them we will be fairly heavy favorites. In fact, the one game in which we were not projected to win was at Lasalle (yes, the same Lasalle that just got beat by American at home). There is no projection on the second and third games in Hawaii, as the opponants are presently unknown. So, if the projections hold true (even the road loss to Lasalle, which I don't think will happen) and we split games 2 and 3 in Hawaii, that will put us at 10-2, or a pretty gaudy 16-5 overall. Further, for those who are ready to bury the Atlantic 10 this season, I will note that we are still rated the 7th best conference, with 6 teams with an RPI under 60 and a 7th (Davidson) with a 7-1 record and a 113 RPI.
If one good thing comes from the PSU debacle, it may be the wakeup call for the team. It is clear that ML is not very pleased with the squad, which I suspect is going to result in an uptick in intensity and smarter play. The bottom line...do not buy your NIT tickets yet.
12/17/2014 10:46:48 AM - Poog - 3,726 posts (#5)
What did you do to my classmate? Interesting that some sun filters through as US-Cuba relations finally seem to thaw.
12/17/2014 10:49:56 AM - MYSTERY COLONIAL - 158 posts (#119)
I never thought this day would come, but +1 LSF. Well said.
12/17/2014 11:25:02 AM - The MV - 4,539 posts (#4)
LSF, you ignorant slut. (I know you're old enough to understand the reference.)
This year is clearly not last year. Yes, the A10 is presently rated as the 7th strongest conference based on RPI. However, the margin between the 2nd and 6th strongest conferences is smaller than the margin between the 6th and 7th. Put another way, there is a noticeable drop this year after the 6 major conferences, while last year, the A10 was right up there with many of the major conferences, and actually was stronger than the SEC.
The A10 presently has 6 schools in the top 56 but last year, when 6 teams made the dance, we had 6 in the top 43. That may not sound like a big difference but when you're selecting at-large bids, it's an enormous one. Finally, not to sound paranoid, but I am fully expecting an "anti-A10 bias" to work against A10 schools this coming March. While one year is supposed to have nothing to do with the other, I can foresee one or more A10 teams getting shafted under the rationale that the committee did the conference a f"avor" by inviting 6 teams last year.
The key will be for the A10 to be a top-heavy league. If the top 4 or even 5 teams truly distinguish themselves from the pack, there is a very small chance we'll be sending 5 but 4 is more likely. If this doesn't happen, I could easily see the league sending 3 teams, with even a remote possibility of two if two schools are cleary head and shoulders above the rest.
So to this way of thinking, losses to SHU and PSU will not mean much if GW performs great in-conference (13-3 or better).
12/17/2014 11:41:00 AM - GWSB'11 - 161 posts (#118)
this is not a good sign.
There is a saying in the invesment world that when the last of the bears start to become bulls, it's time to pull out.
When that last person jumps in the pool, it's usually too late to get out.
Hope I'm wrong on this.
12/17/2014 12:29:04 PM - ziik - 2,658 posts (#9)
Someone else said it first: Yuta Yuta Yuta
Why step out on the ledge when you can watch him develop?
And if even one of his classmates becomes more productive, this team will have a bit of depth.
Finally PSU was not bad at all, and they were well coached. Not a dismal loss. VMI at home. That would be a dismal loss.
12/17/2014 12:30:50 PM - adclub - 371 posts (#62)
12/17/2014 12:36:25 PM - Free Quebec - 5,905 posts (#2)
We're going to win the A-10 tourney anyway.
We just have to keep improving throughout the season, figure out how to fix our starters' reluctance to shoot outside and poor percentage (especially Joe), re-learn how to play with Armwood-like intensity for 40 minutes, and keep developing depth.
Maybe that sounds like a lot, but it's not that much for this team. In fact, we're still 65th in the Pomeroy ratings. One more 3 a game, a slight uptick in defensive rebounding or one less turnover per game are all little things that would easily vault us into the top 40 or 45 or so. We're really not that far off where we want to be, just have to use this break to relax and keep fightigng to get better.
12/17/2014 2:23:54 PM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,670 posts (#6)
My point wasn't that the conference is not as good as last year...clearly we are not. Last year we had something like 9-10 teams in the top 100. This year, there has been a major drop off in several teams (off the top of my head St. Joes, Lasalle and St. Louis), with only one team making a major jump in the rankings (URI). Rather, my point was that although we are not as good, we are still a formidble conference that should still receive multiple bids. And of course I recognize the SNL reference.
12/17/2014 3:21:48 PM - Buff and Blue Bandit - 47 posts (#200)
We are GW! No I am not talking about that ridiculous new cheer (please make it go away, why do we need to make comparisons to Penn State). What I am talking about is we are always on the ledge. And that has less to do with the fact that we are in the A10 and can't grab the best ESPN 5 Star recruits in the world, but rather because GW's program has never had long spans of success. On a year to year basis, we never know what to expect out of our team.
Hell last year, we were all bemoaning the fact that we were 6-1 and had almost lost to University of Miami. We were 6-1 and saying we sucked. And no, I am not about to declare us NCAA bound this year, but I am also not saying we have no shot at even a CBI bid. What I am saying is, enjoy the ride. Maybe we do take a step back this year. If so, we might be better for it. And if not and we do make the NCAAs this Core 4 and the freshmen will have some real experience under their belts.
More than anything, let's enjoy this. This is a new team, a new day. Once our OOC schedule is out of the way, lets then discuss our NCAA hopes. By then, who knows maybe we'll have knocked off Wichita in the finals (a guy can dream right?).
As for me, I'll be enjoying the view from the top of my ledge.
12/17/2014 4:56:11 PM - Thomas - 968 posts (#31)
Lasalle lost at home to AU!!!! Was this within the last couple of days?? If AU dominates the Patriot League and makes the NCAA tournament it may not be that bad of a loss.
The fact that GW has really struggled offensively in just about every road game this yearI(even the win at Rutgers) is a cause for concern, but there is plenty of time to redeem themselves. They still somewhat resemble last year's team because they look unbeatable at home. It's entirely possible that GW goes unbeaten at home or loses just 1 home game(at the moment VCU and Dayton would be the toughest home games) like they did last year. If they go 9-0 or 8-1 in home conference games and win 4 or 5 road games that will give GW a 12-6 or 13-5 conference record which should be good enough for a tournament bid. Despite what the metric numbers say about the conference being down a bit, I still think that the NCAA committee respects the A-10 and will select at least 4 teams in VCU, Dayton, GW and whoever finishes 4th.
12/17/2014 5:22:44 PM - BM - 5,181 posts (#3)
The AU/ La Salle game was last night. AU lost at Temple by 3 and don't really have any bad losses. Jonathan Davis still not on the court for them.
12/17/2014 5:28:45 PM - The MV - 4,539 posts (#4)
Bandit, would you mind pulling some of those posts that went off about how much we sucked when we were 6-1 and had barely beaten Miami? At 6-1, we would have just beaten Creighton so all that talk would have come after we had beaten the #20 team in the country at the time. Maybe it's me but I just don't remember all the talk about how much we sucked when we were 6-1.
On a separate note, how come anytime someone wants to discuss the long-tern prognosis for the team, such as whether GW will make the NCAA's, what needs to happen, how easy or tough it will be, etc., someone like you comes along and dismissively tells us to enjoy the ride? For as much time as many of us (obviously myself included) spend on this site, what leads you to believe that people here aren't enjoying the ride?
12/17/2014 5:49:30 PM - Thomas - 968 posts (#31)
Last season, the first sign of optimism/hope for the season is when GW won at Manhattan very early in the season, it may have been the 2nd game of the year. Even though Manhattan plays in a lower-rated conference, it was viewed as a game that GW would lose. GW may have even been a 5 or 6 point underdog in that game. That win give us the first glimpse of how good GW would be last season. I'm with MV, I recall there being a lot of positivity last year because of the unexpected great play of Mo Creek, the emergence of Savage(wasn't he shooting about 70% from the field in his first 4 or 5 games??) and the great start. There was no room for negativity because nobody could've forseen the great things that happened.
12/17/2014 6:00:13 PM - Tuna Can - 1,567 posts (#19)
BM, AU went 6 deep in an overtime game against LaSalle. For those keeping track of opponents, LaSalle went 7 deep in the same game.
12/17/2014 6:09:25 PM - Thomas - 968 posts (#31)
Yeah Tuna, I just looked up the box score of the AU-Lasalle game and saw that. Their starters all played over 40 minutes. It's stunning that a team from a lower-rated conference can play just 6 guys and beat a team with suposedly superior players.
12/17/2014 6:20:42 PM - Tennessee Colonial - 1,044 posts (#27)
Somewhat annoyed by the Bad foul shooting and being beaten on our defensive boards last game. As annoyed by the effort as ML was. Team seems to be in a funk. Glaring weakness is the lack of strength of some of our players (SKINNY). Chemistry just isn't there yet.
12/17/2014 7:05:53 PM - ziik - 2,658 posts (#9)
Kethan--injured? not yet healed? or just in a routine slump?
Yuta--I have to drink Ensure. How about we donate a few gallons of something like that to him. Maybe he can add some muscle in-season? (I recommend the chocolate. It does not taste as bad as you may have heard)
Kevlar---How does ML maintain control over the guy's On/Off switch?
Kopriva--Any way we can get 19ppg out of him on a regular basis?
Joe-- Ok, he's had his quota of bad games
Griff-- Any chance GW can access the much discussed Cloak of Invisibility, so he can keep from being closely guarded by teams that have scouted GW, and know that he's only out there to shoot the 3?
McCoy--Who is the Real McCoy? Can he bang? Can he keep an opponent off of Kevlar's back?
The Hawaiian tournament--GW does not have the depth to win 3 straight games in quick succession absent Christmas miracles. But GW has a bunch of loyal law alums out there, and and should have some traveling fans as well. The subs will have to get some time and will gain experience. GW will gain exposure, no matter the outcomes. Hopefully, ML and Company also establish relationships for future games. I'd be happy to see home and homes with any of the teams in the tourney.
12/17/2014 7:15:54 PM - Poog - 3,726 posts (#5)
Remember how we struggled last year when Kethan got hurt? His game is still MIA and it doesn't look to be because of any lingering effects of his foot injury. Until his game (and/or head) comes around, GW won't be playing on enough cylinders to reliably handle decent opponents. As for the Penn State game, their size would have given us problems last year. Probably miss Zeke's fire more than his rebounding.
12/17/2014 10:11:55 PM - MG'14 - 215 posts (#98)
A10 is awful this year. One of the teams who was supposed to be very good (NCAA good) just lost its 2 big men, and the A10 racks up terrible losses. Lasalle to American last night and Duquesne to St. Francis (PA) tonight. A10 is extremely weak this year. GW needs to win basically every conference game minus 1 to VCU in order to qualify for NCAA (in my opinion)
12/17/2014 11:19:52 PM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,670 posts (#6)
The A-10, while down from last year, is hardly awful. If we are, what does that say about conferences 8--30? GW needs to win 23 this year, plus 1 in the tournament, and they are a lock To put it another way, if we go a realistic 9-4 OOC and and 14-4 in conference we are in. If GW is really a good team and the conference is really down, then this is very doable. Likewise for 22 wins (13-5 in conference) and 2 tournament wins. We certainly do not have to go 17-1 in the conference to get an invite.
12/18/2014 9:54:40 AM - MG'14 - 215 posts (#98)
So realistically GW can be 9-4 going into A10 play. That means we'd have to go 14-4 in the A10 which I think is very doable. Mainly because the A10 is very down. And yes compared to conferences who are historically bad we are doing fine, but we are not a bad conference (at least not in the past few years). And we went from 6 teams in the tourny last year to what is looking like a maximum of 3
12/18/2014 10:41:34 AM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,670 posts (#6)
My prediction, at this point in the time, is that 3 from the A-10 is a realistic expectation, with the 3 coming from VCU, GW, UMass, URI, Dayton and maybe Davidson. Of course this is assuming that one of those teams is going to get the auto bid as conference winner.
12/18/2014 11:07:28 AM - Poog - 3,726 posts (#5)
Probably should scratch Dayton from that tourney consideration
12/18/2014 11:17:03 AM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,670 posts (#6)
Dayton's current IEP is high enough that with a good run in the A-10 (certainly possible) that they would warrant consideration. Same can probably be said for Richmond.
12/18/2014 12:36:14 PM - BC - 1,327 posts (#24)
Heck, anyone can go to the NCAAs if the win the A10 Tournament.
12/18/2014 3:11:39 PM - LA Fan - 1,459 posts (#21)
I can already see GW vs. VCU in the A-10 Finals, GW wins by 3 and gets a 13 seed out west.
12/18/2014 4:34:36 PM - Mentzinger - 3,443 posts (#7)
Count me among those dogging the A-10 this year. One bid a possibiity. The bottom is like MEAC bad. Interesting some think we can win the A10 tournament outright. I hadn't considered that and probably won't until Savage scores 20 or Larsen has a double-double in consecutive games. Joe also needs to play more consistently (and maybe not lead the team iun rebounding?) Kopriva has been a pleasant surprise... almost Anton Ixturbe-ish. Encouraged that Paulie Jorgs is providing solid mins at backup PG. Yuta has a chance, in my opinion, to be a lottery pick.
12/18/2014 4:35:49 PM - Mentzinger - 3,443 posts (#7)
That's Anxton Iturbe. (sp.)